On July 15, the research group led by Zhou Sha, a researcher at the Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, published a research paper in Nature Climate Change titled "Targeted tropical forest restoration can offset deforestation‑induced water flux losses." The study reveals the asymmetric impacts of tropical forest loss and restoration on evapotranspiration and precipitation and their underlying mechanisms, and finds that targeted restoration of a portion of the lost forests in South America and Africa could offset the water flux losses caused by deforestation.

Abstract:

Tropical forest restoration is increasingly promoted as a nature-based solution for climate change mitigation, yet its capacity to reverse the hydrological impacts of deforestation remains unclear. Here we show forest gain increases evapotranspiration and precipitation more than forest loss reduces them. This hydrological asymmetry, driven by the rapid growth of young forests and enhanced moisture recycling, indicates that compensating for hydrological effects of deforestation requires restoring 43–63% and 53–83% of lost forest area in South America and Africa, respectively. In contrast, climatic conditions in Southeast Asia limit the potential of reforestation, underscoring the importance of forest conservation. Current climate models fail to capture these asymmetric responses, largely owing to poor representation of vegetation dynamics and age-dependent traits. Our findings call for reframing forest-based climate solutions through the lens of hydrological resilience, emphasizing the importance of spatially targeted, mechanism-informed restoration strategies to maximize ecosystem service co-benefits.

Reference: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02709-7