[Opinion]China set to be the world's most visited tourist destination
Editor's note: Djoomart Otorbaev is a former prime minister of the Kyrgyz Republic, a professor of the Belt and Road School of Beijing Normal University, a member of Nizami Ganjavi International Center, and the author of the book "Central Asia's Economic Rebirth in the Shadow of the New Great Game"(Routledge, 2023).
China's successful efforts to simplify the visa process have led to a significant rise in foreign visitors this year and marked a remarkable recovery from the decline caused by the pandemic. Recently, the National Immigration Administration reported that 14.64 million foreigners visited China in the first half of the year, a staggering 152 percent increase from the previous year. This surge in foreign visitors underscores China's potential to become the most visited tourist destination in the world.
The changes to the visa-free policy have made travel to China more accessible than ever, as from January to June, there were over 8.5 million visa-free entries, accounting for 52 percent of inbound travel and showing a 190 percent increase from similar travels compared to the previous year.
This positive trend not only bodes well for the tourism industry but also instills optimism about the future of the overall services sector. While the current number of foreign visitors is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 figure of 15.53 million for the same period in 2019, the potential for further growth is significant and should be a focus for future enhancements.
The country's expanded visa-free transit policy, implemented in November last year, has also been a resounding success. Citizens from 54 countries can stay visa-free for up to 144 hours in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai if they have a valid ticket. This policy also applies to cruise ship passengers. According to the Beijing exit and entry authority, between January and June, 33,700 eligible foreign travelers took advantage of this visa-free transit policy, seven times more than the previous year.
Beijing has successfully implemented visa waiver agreements with over 40 countries, including reciprocal agreements with more than 20 countries. The recent inclusion of New Zealand, Australia, and Poland in China's expanding visa waiver program continues this policy.
In December, China introduced a one-year trial of visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia. In March, the program was extended to include Ireland, Switzerland, Hungary, Austria, Belgium, and Luxembourg, providing the opportunity to explore China without the hassle of obtaining a visa.
China has made significant advances in various technological fields. Over 80 percent of daily consumption transactions in China occur on mobile platforms. However, the transition to a cashless society and the widespread use of digital technology, such as WeChat Pay and AliPay, creates serious problems for foreign visitors who are used to paying with credit cards or cash.
Many Chinese checkpoints, transport networks, hotels, and restaurants only accept WeChat Pay or AliPay, making it difficult for foreign guests. While Chinese travelers dominate the local tourism market, it is essential to pay special attention to the needs of foreign clients. Simplifying the process of scanning foreign passports at checkpoints and developing multilingual mobile apps using artificial intelligence technology will be essential to support foreign tourists' travel experiences.
The first steps to make it easier for foreigners to pay for services using traditional methods have already been taken. Last year, Alipay and WeChat launched a service that allows foreign Visa and Mastercard bank cards to be linked to their applications. As a result, it has become easier for international travelers, as they can now pay for services in a virtually cashless society.
Travel and tourism are critical in the global economy, contributing $9.9 trillion (or 9.1 percent of the global GDP) in 2023. Projections anticipate faster growth, reaching $11.1 trillion in 2024 (or 10 percent of GDP) and $16 trillion (or 11.4 percent of GDP) in 2034.
The travel and tourism industry is vital to China, too. Its contribution to the country's GDP reached around 8 percent in 2023, still down from 2019's 11.6 percent. In absolute numbers, China's total tourism revenue reached 4.91 trillion yuan ($677 billion) in 2023, still below the 6.63 trillion yuan achieved in 2019. However, based on the growth rate in the first half of this year, total revenue this year could exceed the level of 2019. Considering this, the government's extraordinary efforts to increase this share deserve full support.
Tourists visit the Temple of Heaven in Beijing, capital of China, May 2, 2024. /Xinhua
These figures are imposing, but when considering the future, they become exorbitant. An analysis by investment bank Morgan Stanley in their July 11 publication shows that inbound tourism revenue in China is projected to increase from $77 billion in 2019 to $431 billion in 2033. According to their analysis, China's share of global tourism is expected to rise from 2.4 percent in 2019 to 6 percent by 2033.
Сontribution of inbound tourism to GDP is expected to quadruple over the next decade, increasing from just under 1 percent to 4 percent. For comparison, France, the world's most visited tourist destination, had $71 billion in international tourism revenue in 2019, with tourism's total contribution to GDP around 8 percent.
Equally important, foreign tourist arrivals could create up to 35 million jobs in the sector over the next decade, equivalent to 5 percent of current total employment. It could help boost productivity and consumption, supporting the government's efforts to revive the economy and contribute to economic development.
China's visa-free policy amply illustrates the country's determination for further opening up, and has become a propeller to facilitate tourism, promoting the prosperous development of related industries. It's also worth noting that the policy has played a significant role in boosting people-to-people exchanges, allowing the world to see the real China.
Tourism has become an essential component of China's economy since the early 1980s when the country embarked on reform and opening-up. The rise of a thriving middle-income group and the easing of travel restrictions for Chinese citizens and foreign visitors have contributed to the rapid growth of both inbound and outbound tourism. Outbound tourism has become the world's largest, and the next challenge for the country is to become the most visited.
