Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats facing humanity. Researchers from Beijing Normal University, Texas A&M University, the University of Pennsylvania, Renmin University of China, and Peking University have collaboratively quantified the impact of temperature variability on mortality risks among the elderly.

A study led by Yao Xin, a 2022 master's student from the Faculty of Geographical Science, titled "Elderly Vulnerability to Temperature-Related Mortality Risks in China", was published online in Science Advances on February 5. Against the backdrop of climate change, this research provides a comprehensive understanding of the health risks faced by older adults due to temperature fluctuations, offering critical insights for strengthening and refining health service systems for the elderly.

Research Framework

Abstract of the paper:

The elderly face elevated mortality risk due to rising temperature. Previous assessments of temperature-related mortality, however, lack a comprehensive analysis of distinct impacts of temperature change across different timescales and characteristics. Using a longitudinal survey of 27,233 elderly Chinese citizens from 2005 to 2018, we establish connections between rising temperatures, temperature variability, and extreme heat with increased mortality risk, assessed through four annual metrics that combine temperature and humidity. The intensity and prolonged duration of extreme heat are found to have the greatest impact on mortality risk. Furthermore, by identifying heterogeneous impacts based on location, sex, age, obesity, income, and diet, we reveal the pathways through which temperature metrics are likely to influence mortality risk. Our study highlights the compound effects of rising temperatures for elderly populations, and it could be expanded to other countries and regions experiencing similar challenges due to an aging population experiencing warming conditions.

Link to the paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ado5499