A research group led by Professor Yang Xiaofan from the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University, has developed a comprehensive assessment framework that integrates "meteorological conditions—wind and solar power generation—HIWs(high-impact weather events)—electricity demand—inter‑regional transmission optimization." Based on 5‑km resolution, hourly meteorological data, combined with different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), regional electricity demand projections, and the actual topology of China's seven regional power grids, the study systematically evaluates the impacts of HIWs on the future wind-solar power system under climate change, and further explores the mitigation effectiveness of optimized wind-solar deployment and inter‑regional power transmission. The related findings were recently published in Nature Communications.

The abstract is as follows:

High-impact weather events (HIWs) threaten power system reliability by inducing prolonged, concurrent deficits in wind and solar generation. Here, we present an integrated assessment of China’s future renewable-dominated power system under climate change, leveraging 5-kilometer resolution spatial and hourly temporal meteorological data, spatially explicit electricity demand projections, and a climate-informed coordinated optimization of renewable generation and cross-regional transmission. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2040, we find that HIWs can trigger generation deficits persisting up to 24 days annually, reducing wind and solar output by as much as 41.2% in inland provinces and 22.7% across northern-central grids, respectively. Inner Mongolia and the Northwest China Grid emerge as key export hubs, with a combined cross-regional transmission potential of 605 gigawatts to alleviate regional imbalances. These results underscore the amplifying role of HIWs in disrupting renewable supply chains and highlight the necessity of spatially coordinated, climate-resilient infrastructure planning to secure a low-carbon energy future.

Reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-73427-z